Wednesday, April 23, 2003

Bush Administration Power Struggles - New Maneuvering
There is a new article in the New York Times today regarding the power struggles within the Bush administration. The factions so far are the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House and the Vice President's office. Vice President Dick Cheney is viewed as falling in the the neo-conservative camp along with Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz in the Pentagon and members of the Defense Policy Board such as Newt Gingrich and Richard Perle. Richard Armitage at the State Department also falls into this camp as a sort of fifth column.

Rumsfeld opposed this week's talks with North Korea in Beijing. Instead, he circulated a memo proposing that China and the United States try to bring down the North Korean government. After all, if it worked in Iraq, then it will work in North Korea, right? Conservatives such as Gingrich have criticized Powell's plan to discuss Syria's support for terrorism and possession of chemical and biological weapons with Bashar al-Assad. Cheney and Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, have since advocated toning down criticism of Syria, which has come mainly from Donald Rumsfeld and other conservatives.

The White House is backing Colin Powell on negotiating with Syria on its support of terrorism, negotiating with North Korea on its nuclear weapons program, and promoting talks between Israel and a newly emerging Palestinian leadership to create a Palestinian state. George Bush has no love for Newt Gingrich, going back to the rivalry between Newt Gingrich and George Bush I.

Who's Next Part III - France?
Relations between the US and France seem to be at an all-time low. Forget Lafayette; forget the Statue of Liberty; forget the Marne; forget D-Day; the Bush administration is pursuing steps to punish France for opposing the United States on the war in Iraq. Colin Powell, in an interview on The Charlie Rose Show, warned that France would suffer consequences. Possible consequences include shifting NATO decisions to the Defense Planning Council, which does not include France, and bypassing the North Atlantic Council, of which France is a member; and limiting French participation in American-sponsored meetings with European allies. In addition, when Bush attends an international economic summit meeting in Évian in the French Alps later this spring, he will stay at a hotel across the border in Switzerland, never mind that Switzerland had been even more opposed to the war in Iraq than France. Trade or economic sanctions are unlikely because such sanctions would hurt the US as much as France. France could not be singled out without EU retaliation.

Powell said the US would be reviewing all aspects of its relations with France. Senior officials met with Stephen J. Hadley, the deputy national security adviser, to discuss possible consequences for France. Marc Grossman, the under secretary of state for political affairs, I. Lewis Libby and Eric Edelman also attended. Libby and Edelman, described by some administration officials as driving forces within the group, are two influential hawks on the staff of Vice President Dick Cheney. However, not only conservatives within the administration are pushing this policy. Colin Powell is angry with the French for what he perceives as a betrayal in the UN for failing to support a US-backed resolution to authorize war in Iraq.

The disagreements with France over how to proceed in Iraq are continuing. France proposed the immediate suspension of sanctions against Iraq but is still pressing for UN weapons inspectors to verify illegal weapons finds before lifting sanctions. The White House position is that sanctions must be lifted immediately, "not merely suspended". The main aspects of sanctions that France likely wants to keep in place is the Oil for Food program. Under this program, the UN, not the US, would control sale of Iraqi oil.

President Bush believes that the two countries share many common values and that the alliance would continue. However, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the division went further than a difference of opinion. The differences seem to be focused on the role of the US and the UN in international relations. Conservatives in the US oppose a powerful UN and oppose anything that might subject US sovereignty to international law, such as the International Criminal Court. France is also seen as opposing US influence in the world from a philosophical and cultural standpoint.

There is more in this article in the New York Times and at the BBC.

No comments: