Tuesday, April 29, 2003

It appears that the US will be able to let some pressure off the house of Saud by removing its troops from the kingdom. This will allow two changes in the US relationship with the Saudis. First, it will remove one gripe by Arabs who see the kingdom as a puppet of the US. Second, it will allow the US to criticise the Saudis without having to worry that they will revoke basing rights in the kingdom. The bases were necessary to maintain pressure on Iraq. That is no longer necessary with the fall of Saddam Hussein. Instead, the US military will be based in Qatar and Iraq for the foreseeable future.

The Atlantic Monthly has an in-depth article about the House of Saud in its May issue. The main point of the article is that "Saudi Arabia is controlled by an increasingly bankrupt, criminal, dysfunctional, and out-of-touch royal family that is hated by the people it rules and by the nations that surround its kingdom." It is a scathing critique of the House of Saud and predicts an impending disaster unless a serious attempt at reform is made in the kingdom. The article also goes into great detail regarding contacts between American business and military leaders and members of the ruling house. Reading it reminds me of the Shah of Iran before the Islamic revolution there in 1978. When the Saudis are overthrown, it will come as a big surprise and a serious blow to American interests in the region.

In events today:
The United States has said that virtually all its troops, except some training personnel, are to be pulled out of Saudi Arabia.
Earlier on Tuesday, the US military confirmed that it was moving its air command centre from Saudi Arabia to the al-Udeid air base in neighbouring Qatar.
US Rear Admiral David Nichols said the Combined Air Operations Centre (CAOC) at the Prince Sultan base in Saudi Arabia would be closed by the end of the summer.
US troops have become a potent symbol of Washington's role in the region, and many Saudis see them as proof of the country's subservience to America. Osama Bin Laden used American presence to justify anti-US attacks

In Iraq
The US says it will deploy up to 4,000 additional troops to boost security in Baghdad.
US forces in the Iraqi town of Falluja open fire on protesters, reportedly killing at least 13
The governor of Basra under Saddam Hussein has surrendered in Baghdad, according to the Iraqi National Congress.

Israel/Palestine
The outline of the Road Map to Peace between Israel and the Palestinians has not yet been published, but is expected this week. The acceptance of a new cabinet by the Palestinian parliament has removed the final roadblock to publishing the plan. The outline of the plan is fairly well known, though the details are still sketchy. The Palestinians have accepted the plan, but Israel still has objections to it.

Outline:
Phase 1: End to violence
In the first phase of the roadmap, terrorism and violence are supposed to end, Palestinian life should be normalised, the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territories improved, and Palestinian institutions rebuilt. Palestinians should resume security co-operation and end terrorism and incitement. Palestinians should restructure their security services. Palestinians should undertake comprehensive political reform including a new constitution and elections.
Phase 2: Transition
The second phase of the roadmap aims to focus on creating an independent Palestinian state with "provisional borders and attributes of sovereignty". This phase is intended to start after Palestinian elections and end with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Arab states are called on to restore pre-intifada links to Israel - trade offices, diplomatic delegations and the like.
Phase 3: Permanent status agreement/end of conflict
The objectives of this phase are "consolidation of reform and stabilisation of Palestinian institutions, sustained, effective Palestinian security performance, and Israeli-Palestinian negotiations aimed at a permanent status agreement in 2005". The Quartet (US, UN, EU, Russa) is to convene a second international conference to endorse agreements reached by the Israelis and Palestinians on final borders, Jerusalem, refuges and settlements. The conference is then meant to support progress to a comprehensive Middle East agreement between Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Agreements are intended to protect the "religious interests of Jews, Christians, and Muslims worldwide". Arab states are called on to accept "full normal relations with Israel and security for all the states of the region in the context of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace".
This was published at the BBC.

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