Will UN Sanctions Against Iraq Be Lifted?
Why shouldn't the UN lift sanctions against Iraq? Bush seems to want sanctions lifted immediately. Yesterday I said that it seems like a no-brainer, but what happens when sanctions are lifted? The oil for food program was part of the sanctions, so lifting the sanctions removes the oil for food program and undermines the UN's remaining influence over developments in Iraq. If the sanctions are in place, then the UN retains control of Iraq's oil resources and has leverage over contract to rebuild the nation. Without a interim government in place, the sale of oil would be controlled by the US alone, removing the only leverage the UN has in Iraq and putting the US in complete control of Iraqi oil. Without sale of oil, the US must fund the reconstruction of Iraq on its own during that period.

Before today, Russia, Mexico and France had argued that the sanctions should not be lifted until the issue of weapons of mass destruction is settled. This would mean reintroducing UN weapons inspectors to Iraq and a much longer period before oil could be sold to rebuild Iraq. Hans Blix said his experts could be back in Iraq within two weeks. On Thursday, Britain, France, Spain and Germany put forward a joint statement calling for an end to sanctions but continued support for a central role for the UN in Iraqi reconstruction. The four nations are working with Russia to produce a series of draft resolutions for the UN security council on how to assist Iraq and which will define the UN's postwar role in Iraq. Chirac said the UN should define the conditions of rebuilding Iraq, including who should get contracts for reconstruction of the country.

This is the most important issue currently facing the UN. It is probably the most important issue facing the UN in years. It applies not just to UN involvement in Iraq, but the role of the UN in international relations for the future. According to the New York Times, if the issue is not handled carefully, it potentially could deepen divisions. Given the track record of contempt that the Bush administration has towards the UN, it is unlikely that the issue will be handled carefully.

What Iraqis are jockeying for position in an interim Iraqi government?
Those competing for leading post-war roles include:
* Ahmed Chalabi of the London-based INC who appears to be trying to force the pace by moving from his initial base in southern Iraq to the capital, Baghdad
* Ayad Alawi, who leads a party which includes many military defectors from the old regime, is said to be in Baghdad seeking to garner support from so-called "clean" Baath party members
* Mashaan al-Juburi who defected from the regime in the 1990s and is now working with the Kurds and Americans in northern Iraq; he describes himself as acting governor of Mosul
* Mohammed Mohsen Zubaidi, a member of the US-backed Iraqi National Congress, had announced his election as mayor of Baghdad by local people and was liaising with the US military
* The "Free Officers and Civilian Movement" has emerged out of the woodwork. Its name and the slogan "Iraq First" was spray-painted on a wall beneath a torn picture of Saddam Hussein.
* A well-known Shi'ite party had done the same, with the slogan "Yes to Islamic national unity."
* Activists for a Kurdish party and a monarchist movement have also been handing out leaflets to bemused passers-by.

Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
As the War in Iraq ends, the world is beginning to refocus on the Palestinian issue. The Israeli-Palestinian peace process is entering a new phase in which the US will have to pressure Israel to take painful steps, particularly dismantling Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza. The next steps in the process are laid out in the Road Map, devised by the Quartet, made up of the US, the EU, the UN and Russia, over the last year. Israel conveyed 14 objections to the peace plan at a meeting with US officials. Among the objections were that the Road Map calls for Israel to pull back troops and dismantle Jewish settlements without concrete steps by the Palestinians to end their attacks on Israelis and that it does not specifically preclude any right of return to Israel by Palestinians to their pre-1948 homes in Israel. The peace plan calls for Israel, in the plan's first year, to dismantle settlements created since March 2001 and freeze all settlement activity including natural growth of settlements. Colin Powell will be visiting the Middle East in the next weeks in order to give fresh impetus to the peace process, probably in May.

The EU urged the US to act quickly to publish the Road Map now that the War in Iraq is over. Colin Powell has stated that installation of a new Palestinian prime minister would lead to a much more active American engagement in the process, including publication of the Road Map. Publication is delayed by a dispute between Yassir Arafat and the new Palestinian Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas. The dispute is blocking the accession of Abbas to his post. Because the US and Israel refuse to work with Arafat, this effectively blocks any further progress towards peace in Palestine. Three US congressmen as well as the consuls general of Britain, Spain, Italy and Germany have met with Yassir Arafat to urge him not to obstruct Abbas. The US is also applying pressure on Israel in order to bolster Abbas in the dispute. The US is pressing Israel to ease its crackdown in the West Bank and Gaza once Abbas is installed. The US is asking Israel to consider a troop pullback from Palestinian population centers, an easing of checkpoints and other curbs on Palestinian travel and work permits, and a speedier turnover of tax revenues collected by Israel to Palestinian authorities. Sharon is considering the steps but would not pull back troops.