The new Rasmussen polls out in California and Oregon put Kerry miles ahead of Bush in California (51% to 40%) but neck and neck in Oregon. In the Oregon poll, if Nader is included, both Bush and Kerry poll at 43% and Nader gets 8%. If Nader is not in the race (which he likely will be), Kerry inches ahead of Bush 47% to 46%. This probably shouldn't be a surprise, given the discrepancies between earlier polls. This puts Oregon in the toss-up column. California will go to Kerry, but this is no surprise.
Bottom line Electoral Votes: Kerry 252 Bush 213 Undecided 73
Needed to win: 270
A very interesting poll from the Zogby polling organization takes a look at Arab-American voters' attitudes in four key states: Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. In all of these states, regardless of religion, Arab-American voters overwhelmingly favor John Kerry. Even with Ralph Nader (who is Arab-American) in the race, Kerry leads Bush by a two-to-one margin in Ohio (50% to 25% with 5% for Nader) and Pennsylvania (52% to 26% with 12% for Nader) and significant margins in Michigan (42% to 25% with 19% for Nader) and Florida (40% to 35% with 14% for Nader). The overall margin for Kerry (44% to 28% with 13% for Nader) is almost exactly the opposite as the Margin of Bush over Gore in 2000 (46% to 29% with 13% for Nader). Clearly something has happened within the Arab-American community to turn against Bush so vehemently.
How this affects the overall election is unclear. Bush won in Ohio and squeaked by in Florida in 2000. The sea change in attitudes towards him might doom him in Florida, but the polls there are still very close. Polls are showing Kerry ahead by a decent margin in Michigan and Ohio and different polls show different results in Pennsylvania. The current polling in these states probably already takes into account Arab-American opinion. It remains to be seen whether the Arab-American vote will be large enough to swing these states one way or another.
What is really fascinating about the poll is in the issue area. When asked who would do a better job in dealing with various issues, Kerry outpolls Bush in every issue area except terrorism/national security. This includes Kerry's normally strong issues around Economy, Health Care, Education and the Environment. But Kerry also outpolls Bush on Foreign Policy, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Taxes, and Patriot Act/Civil Liberties, which are Bush's strong suits in the population as a whole. It seems Arab-Americans just do not like Bush.
Wednesday, April 28, 2004
Friday, April 23, 2004
A Rasmussen poll has Kerry leading Bush in the normally solidly Republican New Hampshire. The difference is within the margin of error (47% Kerry, 45% Bush), but this will take New Hampshire out of my prediction of going for Bush and bring it into leaning to Kerry, but too close to call.
What I find surprising about the results of my ongoing analysis is that the South has more states in play that I had expected. Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia and Florida are all tossups. I had expected the Midwest to be the real battleground. But the big states that I had expected to be tossups there are actually leaning one way or the other by only 3 to 7 points. Most of those states are not solid locks for either party, but neither are they tossups. Kerry has less than a five point lead in Ohio and Michigan and a three point lead in Minnesota. Bush is ahead in Missouri and Pennsylvania by only 7 and 6 points, respectively. The Pacific Northwest is also leaning, but not solidly for Kerry. He leads in Washington by only 6 points and in Oregon by only 5.
I suspect that the issue of the economy will play a large roll in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest, where manufacturing and high tech have taken a hit in the recession of the past few years. If the economy improves over the next year, Kerry may find it difficult to hold his lead in these states.
Rasmussen is supposed to have a poll out for Oregon next Monday. We will see if Kerry's lead holds or gets larger. That should also give us an idea of whether Tim Hibbits or the University of Oregon is correct. My money is on Hibbits.
Bottom line Electoral Votes: Kerry 259 Bush 213 Undecided 66
Needed to win: 270
Note: my previous bottom line was incorrect because I had entered the Colorado poll results in my calculator backwards. I also put Arkansas in the Bush camp when it should have remained undecided. Oops.
What I find surprising about the results of my ongoing analysis is that the South has more states in play that I had expected. Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia and Florida are all tossups. I had expected the Midwest to be the real battleground. But the big states that I had expected to be tossups there are actually leaning one way or the other by only 3 to 7 points. Most of those states are not solid locks for either party, but neither are they tossups. Kerry has less than a five point lead in Ohio and Michigan and a three point lead in Minnesota. Bush is ahead in Missouri and Pennsylvania by only 7 and 6 points, respectively. The Pacific Northwest is also leaning, but not solidly for Kerry. He leads in Washington by only 6 points and in Oregon by only 5.
I suspect that the issue of the economy will play a large roll in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest, where manufacturing and high tech have taken a hit in the recession of the past few years. If the economy improves over the next year, Kerry may find it difficult to hold his lead in these states.
Rasmussen is supposed to have a poll out for Oregon next Monday. We will see if Kerry's lead holds or gets larger. That should also give us an idea of whether Tim Hibbits or the University of Oregon is correct. My money is on Hibbits.
Bottom line Electoral Votes: Kerry 259 Bush 213 Undecided 66
Needed to win: 270
Note: my previous bottom line was incorrect because I had entered the Colorado poll results in my calculator backwards. I also put Arkansas in the Bush camp when it should have remained undecided. Oops.
Thursday, April 22, 2004
Do you read Doonesbury? I have been a big fan of the comic strip since the 1970's.
This week, after a short series of re-runs, the strip addressed the war in Iraq through the eyes of the characters there. B.D. has been a regular on the strip since the beginning. He has always represented the gung-ho conservative. He has been in Iraq serving with a reserve unit and some buddies from the 1st Gulf war.
This Monday, I was caught by surprise when the strip showed him caught in one of the many ambushes that soldiers in Iraq have been facing since the beginning of the war. The strip started in black, then showed his buddy tending to him with smoke and dust in the background, obviously from an explosion. The strip then ends in a blackout and we don't know whether B.D. survives. (Read it Here)
By saying that I was caught by surprise, I mean surprised at my reaction as much as the turn in the storyline. I found tears in my eyes because I saw the real possibility that a character that I had known for over twenty-five years would die. Maybe that is what they meant by shock and awe? It may seem absurd that someone might have some emotional investment in a fictional character that is only pen and ink. But I suspect that only those who rarely read novels have not been brought to tears by a good book. I mean a really good book. Doonesbury is like a good book that has been going on for over 30 years.
For the past week, I have been anxious to find out whether B.D. was going to survive. Yesterday, we found out that he was going to survive, but missing his lower leg. In addition, they removed his helmet. B.D. has been defined by a helmet of one sort or another since his character was introduced. To have his helmet removed (revealing black hair with white sides) is probably the most unprecedented thing for Garry Trudeau to do. It underscores the importance he places on this particular story. I imagine that he ran last week's re-runs in order to prepare for this story.
It is obvious that Trudeau thinks that the themes of this story are particularly important. The main theme that I see is that of the danger to our troops in Iraq. The second theme is that, though relatively few are dying in ambushes and attacks compared to previous conflicts, many are being wounded and maimed. It is a testament to modern military medicine that soldiers that in Vietnam or World War II would have died of their wounds are surviving. It also shows the value Americans in general and the US military place on human life.
For the most part, the numbers Americans are hearing about from the Iraq war are the numbers of dead soldiers. Relatively speaking, these numbers are low. What is often overlooked are the numbers of wounded. The military tracks casualties in order to determine the effectiveness of combat units. From a casualty standpoint wounded or dead soldiers have the same effect on the effectiveness of combat units. That is, when a soldier is removed from a unit, the effectiveness drops. It does not matter that the soldier has been removed by death or has simply been relocated to a hospital in Germany; the combat strength of the unit drops.
However, what gets reported in the media is not casualties and the combat strength of the military, but how many soldiers died. Deaths have a greater impact at home than do overall casualties. When a soldier returns home, the families are relieved that he is back alive, even if he is missing a leg or otherwise maimed. For the soldier, though, his life has changed forever. I wonder what B.D.'s life will be like when he returns home? For a man who was a football star, a coach and otherwise physically active, losing a leg will be one of the greatest emotional and mental challenges he will ever face.
This week, after a short series of re-runs, the strip addressed the war in Iraq through the eyes of the characters there. B.D. has been a regular on the strip since the beginning. He has always represented the gung-ho conservative. He has been in Iraq serving with a reserve unit and some buddies from the 1st Gulf war.
This Monday, I was caught by surprise when the strip showed him caught in one of the many ambushes that soldiers in Iraq have been facing since the beginning of the war. The strip started in black, then showed his buddy tending to him with smoke and dust in the background, obviously from an explosion. The strip then ends in a blackout and we don't know whether B.D. survives. (Read it Here)
By saying that I was caught by surprise, I mean surprised at my reaction as much as the turn in the storyline. I found tears in my eyes because I saw the real possibility that a character that I had known for over twenty-five years would die. Maybe that is what they meant by shock and awe? It may seem absurd that someone might have some emotional investment in a fictional character that is only pen and ink. But I suspect that only those who rarely read novels have not been brought to tears by a good book. I mean a really good book. Doonesbury is like a good book that has been going on for over 30 years.
For the past week, I have been anxious to find out whether B.D. was going to survive. Yesterday, we found out that he was going to survive, but missing his lower leg. In addition, they removed his helmet. B.D. has been defined by a helmet of one sort or another since his character was introduced. To have his helmet removed (revealing black hair with white sides) is probably the most unprecedented thing for Garry Trudeau to do. It underscores the importance he places on this particular story. I imagine that he ran last week's re-runs in order to prepare for this story.
It is obvious that Trudeau thinks that the themes of this story are particularly important. The main theme that I see is that of the danger to our troops in Iraq. The second theme is that, though relatively few are dying in ambushes and attacks compared to previous conflicts, many are being wounded and maimed. It is a testament to modern military medicine that soldiers that in Vietnam or World War II would have died of their wounds are surviving. It also shows the value Americans in general and the US military place on human life.
For the most part, the numbers Americans are hearing about from the Iraq war are the numbers of dead soldiers. Relatively speaking, these numbers are low. What is often overlooked are the numbers of wounded. The military tracks casualties in order to determine the effectiveness of combat units. From a casualty standpoint wounded or dead soldiers have the same effect on the effectiveness of combat units. That is, when a soldier is removed from a unit, the effectiveness drops. It does not matter that the soldier has been removed by death or has simply been relocated to a hospital in Germany; the combat strength of the unit drops.
However, what gets reported in the media is not casualties and the combat strength of the military, but how many soldiers died. Deaths have a greater impact at home than do overall casualties. When a soldier returns home, the families are relieved that he is back alive, even if he is missing a leg or otherwise maimed. For the soldier, though, his life has changed forever. I wonder what B.D.'s life will be like when he returns home? For a man who was a football star, a coach and otherwise physically active, losing a leg will be one of the greatest emotional and mental challenges he will ever face.
New polls by Rassmussen Reports are out for New Jersey, West Virginia and Colorado. The new polls have Bush ahead in West Virginia (46% to 41%) and Colorado (49% to 44%). Neither of these are especially surprising, but it does take West Virginia out of the undecided camp and puts it solidly in Bush Territory. I had West Virginia as too close to call based on previous polls. I had already predicted Colorado as leaning towards Bush.
Based on the new poll, I am moving New Jersey out of the Bush column and solidly into Kerry territory. The margin for Kerry is just too much to ignore. The poll has Kerry ahead 51% to 39%. I had previously had New Jersey as leaning slightly towards Bush based on an earlier poll, however that poll bothered me and seemed abnormal. The newer poll by Rassmussen Reports seems more correct to me. The pollster also seems more reputable than the one I got from The Command Post, which seems like a Republican-oriented website. That site has a link to New York Newsday which cites a poll done by Fairleigh-Dickinson PublicMind. My guess is that this is probably a group based at Fairleigh-Dickinson college and probably run by teachers and students for educational purposes.
Based on this and another poll, I am going to be wary of college and university based polling. The other poll was also cited on the Command Post site and was done at the University of Oregon that showed Bush ahead of Kerry 47% to 45%. Having lived in Oregon and knowing the politics of the state, I found this rather surprising. I took it into account along with one done in early March by professional pollster Tim Hibbits that showed Kerry ahead 45% to 40%. I still have Oregon going towards Kerry.
Bottom line Electoral Votes: Kerry 268 Bush 214 Undecided 56
Needed to win: 270
Based on the new poll, I am moving New Jersey out of the Bush column and solidly into Kerry territory. The margin for Kerry is just too much to ignore. The poll has Kerry ahead 51% to 39%. I had previously had New Jersey as leaning slightly towards Bush based on an earlier poll, however that poll bothered me and seemed abnormal. The newer poll by Rassmussen Reports seems more correct to me. The pollster also seems more reputable than the one I got from The Command Post, which seems like a Republican-oriented website. That site has a link to New York Newsday which cites a poll done by Fairleigh-Dickinson PublicMind. My guess is that this is probably a group based at Fairleigh-Dickinson college and probably run by teachers and students for educational purposes.
Based on this and another poll, I am going to be wary of college and university based polling. The other poll was also cited on the Command Post site and was done at the University of Oregon that showed Bush ahead of Kerry 47% to 45%. Having lived in Oregon and knowing the politics of the state, I found this rather surprising. I took it into account along with one done in early March by professional pollster Tim Hibbits that showed Kerry ahead 45% to 40%. I still have Oregon going towards Kerry.
Bottom line Electoral Votes: Kerry 268 Bush 214 Undecided 56
Needed to win: 270
Monday, April 19, 2004
A poll in Arkansas shows Bush at 47% and Kerry at 45%. It is still too close to call, but it looks like Arkansas is trending towards Bush. Check out more poll results at SurveyUSA.com.
Thursday, April 15, 2004
The prognosticating and punditry has begun. Who will win the presidential election in November 2004? Of course, it depends not on national poll numbers, but on polls within each state. There are some great resources out there to figure it out on your own. I recommend Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections. It has a myriad of resources including a poll where you can predict the results on your own and have it displayed on a map of the country. My own prediction is slightly different from the aggregate of all predictions made.
It also has a link to a site showing the results of a Zogby poll. Zogby cannot predict an outcome yet due to uncertain outcomes in 12 states, including the battleground states of Missouri, Ohio and Florida. He predicts Kerry takes Pennsylvania, but that might change. It appears the midwest is the main battleground, but the Pacific Northwest is uncertain in Zogby's poll. A lot depends on what Ralph Nader does in the PNW.
My own predictions have Bush winning in Texas, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, New Hampshire, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, for a total of 227 electoral votes.
I have Kerry winning in California, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts, Washington, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Iowa, Oregon, New Mexico, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, D.C., Delaware, and Vermont for a total of 244 electoral votes.
My too-close-to-call states are Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada, and West Virginia.
Other close battleground states are Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
A poll in Kentucky in February put Bush ahead of Kerry by 16 points, but that poll is likely to be radically different now. Kentucky has historically been a toss-up. A poll on March 25 put Bush ahead of Kerry 49 to 42 in Missouri, but Kerry ahead of Bush 47 to 44 in Minnesota. A poll in Florida on April 14 put them neck and neck in Florida, with Kerry 47, Bush 46. Recent polls put Kerry ahead of Bush 48 to 44 in Michigan, but Bush ahead of Kerry by the same margin in New Jersey if Nader is in the race. Pennsylvania has switched back and forth, but a recent poll now puts Bush ahead 46 to 40 if Nader is in the race.
According to the few polls I have seen, it is clear that Ralph Nader's 2nd shot at the presidency tilts the race in Bush's favor. In two states, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, that I saw figures with Nader in the race and with him out, his candidacy dooms Kerry's bid. It tightens up the race in Oregon and Washington, possibly even tilting Oregon to Bush.
It also has a link to a site showing the results of a Zogby poll. Zogby cannot predict an outcome yet due to uncertain outcomes in 12 states, including the battleground states of Missouri, Ohio and Florida. He predicts Kerry takes Pennsylvania, but that might change. It appears the midwest is the main battleground, but the Pacific Northwest is uncertain in Zogby's poll. A lot depends on what Ralph Nader does in the PNW.
My own predictions have Bush winning in Texas, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, New Hampshire, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, for a total of 227 electoral votes.
I have Kerry winning in California, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts, Washington, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Iowa, Oregon, New Mexico, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, D.C., Delaware, and Vermont for a total of 244 electoral votes.
My too-close-to-call states are Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada, and West Virginia.
Other close battleground states are Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
A poll in Kentucky in February put Bush ahead of Kerry by 16 points, but that poll is likely to be radically different now. Kentucky has historically been a toss-up. A poll on March 25 put Bush ahead of Kerry 49 to 42 in Missouri, but Kerry ahead of Bush 47 to 44 in Minnesota. A poll in Florida on April 14 put them neck and neck in Florida, with Kerry 47, Bush 46. Recent polls put Kerry ahead of Bush 48 to 44 in Michigan, but Bush ahead of Kerry by the same margin in New Jersey if Nader is in the race. Pennsylvania has switched back and forth, but a recent poll now puts Bush ahead 46 to 40 if Nader is in the race.
According to the few polls I have seen, it is clear that Ralph Nader's 2nd shot at the presidency tilts the race in Bush's favor. In two states, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, that I saw figures with Nader in the race and with him out, his candidacy dooms Kerry's bid. It tightens up the race in Oregon and Washington, possibly even tilting Oregon to Bush.
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