The new Rasmussen polls out in California and Oregon put Kerry miles ahead of Bush in California (51% to 40%) but neck and neck in Oregon. In the Oregon poll, if Nader is included, both Bush and Kerry poll at 43% and Nader gets 8%. If Nader is not in the race (which he likely will be), Kerry inches ahead of Bush 47% to 46%. This probably shouldn't be a surprise, given the discrepancies between earlier polls. This puts Oregon in the toss-up column. California will go to Kerry, but this is no surprise.

Bottom line Electoral Votes: Kerry 252 Bush 213 Undecided 73
Needed to win: 270

A very interesting poll from the Zogby polling organization takes a look at Arab-American voters' attitudes in four key states: Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. In all of these states, regardless of religion, Arab-American voters overwhelmingly favor John Kerry. Even with Ralph Nader (who is Arab-American) in the race, Kerry leads Bush by a two-to-one margin in Ohio (50% to 25% with 5% for Nader) and Pennsylvania (52% to 26% with 12% for Nader) and significant margins in Michigan (42% to 25% with 19% for Nader) and Florida (40% to 35% with 14% for Nader). The overall margin for Kerry (44% to 28% with 13% for Nader) is almost exactly the opposite as the Margin of Bush over Gore in 2000 (46% to 29% with 13% for Nader). Clearly something has happened within the Arab-American community to turn against Bush so vehemently.

How this affects the overall election is unclear. Bush won in Ohio and squeaked by in Florida in 2000. The sea change in attitudes towards him might doom him in Florida, but the polls there are still very close. Polls are showing Kerry ahead by a decent margin in Michigan and Ohio and different polls show different results in Pennsylvania. The current polling in these states probably already takes into account Arab-American opinion. It remains to be seen whether the Arab-American vote will be large enough to swing these states one way or another.

What is really fascinating about the poll is in the issue area. When asked who would do a better job in dealing with various issues, Kerry outpolls Bush in every issue area except terrorism/national security. This includes Kerry's normally strong issues around Economy, Health Care, Education and the Environment. But Kerry also outpolls Bush on Foreign Policy, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Taxes, and Patriot Act/Civil Liberties, which are Bush's strong suits in the population as a whole. It seems Arab-Americans just do not like Bush.