The prognosticating and punditry has begun. Who will win the presidential election in November 2004? Of course, it depends not on national poll numbers, but on polls within each state. There are some great resources out there to figure it out on your own. I recommend Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections. It has a myriad of resources including a poll where you can predict the results on your own and have it displayed on a map of the country. My own prediction is slightly different from the aggregate of all predictions made.

It also has a link to a site showing the results of a Zogby poll. Zogby cannot predict an outcome yet due to uncertain outcomes in 12 states, including the battleground states of Missouri, Ohio and Florida. He predicts Kerry takes Pennsylvania, but that might change. It appears the midwest is the main battleground, but the Pacific Northwest is uncertain in Zogby's poll. A lot depends on what Ralph Nader does in the PNW.

My own predictions have Bush winning in Texas, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, Alabama, Colorado, Kentucky, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, New Hampshire, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, for a total of 227 electoral votes.

I have Kerry winning in California, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts, Washington, Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Iowa, Oregon, New Mexico, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, D.C., Delaware, and Vermont for a total of 244 electoral votes.

My too-close-to-call states are Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada, and West Virginia.

Other close battleground states are Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington.

A poll in Kentucky in February put Bush ahead of Kerry by 16 points, but that poll is likely to be radically different now. Kentucky has historically been a toss-up. A poll on March 25 put Bush ahead of Kerry 49 to 42 in Missouri, but Kerry ahead of Bush 47 to 44 in Minnesota. A poll in Florida on April 14 put them neck and neck in Florida, with Kerry 47, Bush 46. Recent polls put Kerry ahead of Bush 48 to 44 in Michigan, but Bush ahead of Kerry by the same margin in New Jersey if Nader is in the race. Pennsylvania has switched back and forth, but a recent poll now puts Bush ahead 46 to 40 if Nader is in the race.

According to the few polls I have seen, it is clear that Ralph Nader's 2nd shot at the presidency tilts the race in Bush's favor. In two states, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, that I saw figures with Nader in the race and with him out, his candidacy dooms Kerry's bid. It tightens up the race in Oregon and Washington, possibly even tilting Oregon to Bush.