A Rasmussen poll has Kerry leading Bush in the normally solidly Republican New Hampshire. The difference is within the margin of error (47% Kerry, 45% Bush), but this will take New Hampshire out of my prediction of going for Bush and bring it into leaning to Kerry, but too close to call.

What I find surprising about the results of my ongoing analysis is that the South has more states in play that I had expected. Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia and Florida are all tossups. I had expected the Midwest to be the real battleground. But the big states that I had expected to be tossups there are actually leaning one way or the other by only 3 to 7 points. Most of those states are not solid locks for either party, but neither are they tossups. Kerry has less than a five point lead in Ohio and Michigan and a three point lead in Minnesota. Bush is ahead in Missouri and Pennsylvania by only 7 and 6 points, respectively. The Pacific Northwest is also leaning, but not solidly for Kerry. He leads in Washington by only 6 points and in Oregon by only 5.

I suspect that the issue of the economy will play a large roll in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest, where manufacturing and high tech have taken a hit in the recession of the past few years. If the economy improves over the next year, Kerry may find it difficult to hold his lead in these states.

Rasmussen is supposed to have a poll out for Oregon next Monday. We will see if Kerry's lead holds or gets larger. That should also give us an idea of whether Tim Hibbits or the University of Oregon is correct. My money is on Hibbits.

Bottom line Electoral Votes: Kerry 259 Bush 213 Undecided 66
Needed to win: 270

Note: my previous bottom line was incorrect because I had entered the Colorado poll results in my calculator backwards. I also put Arkansas in the Bush camp when it should have remained undecided. Oops.