The Economist magazine will be running a series on crucial swing states in the upcoming election. There was an article this week in that looked at Ohio in depth. The only poll I have for Ohio showed Kerry leading in March, but it is stale. However, The Economist's analysis shows the state much closer than that. It had no actual poll number other than to say that local poll numbers show a dead heat. It also shows that Bush is only 8 points ahead in the south of Ohio, which is the Republican stronghold, and needs to be 16 points ahead to balance the heavily Democratic north. Ohio is a must-win for Bush. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. Also, Ohio has picked the winner in every election since 1964. I will move this from Kerry to Toss-up, but it is a state worth watching.

Here are some new poll numbers by the American Research Group I found. These were done on April 21, before the Iraqi prisoner abuse issue surfaced:

A new Oregon poll shows bush and Kerry neck and neck in at 45% each with 5% going to Nader. Without Nader, Kerry leads 48% to 46%. This is one example of Nader's effect on the election. The favorability/unfavorability ratings are lopsided in favor of Kerry. Bush's favor/unfavor ratings are 47%/42%. Kerry comes out better with 48%/29%. The head-to-head numbers in Oregon are tied, but the favorability ratings come out well in Kerry's favor. This is a good indication that things will cut towards Kerry in the end, but not enough to take it out of the undecided column.

In Florida, this are as tight as anyone else has shown with 46% for Bush, 45% for Kerry and 3% for Nader. Without Nader, the race is even tighter, with 47% each for Bush and Kerry. Bush's favor/unfavor ratings are 48%/45%. Kerry's don't look good for him at 44% favorable, 45% unfavorable. This is bad new for Kerry in Florida. Nader looks worse. His rating was 17%/53% on March 4 and has fallen to 8%/70%.

In Iowa, Kerry leads Bush by a statistically insignificant margin 47% to 46% with 3% going to Nader. Taking Nader out makes little difference, with 48% going to Kerry and 47% to Bush. Bush's favor/unfavor ratings are 48%/44%. Kerry's are better with 42%/34%. As a footnote, Nader's ratings are 4%/72%. That means that almost everyone who had a favorable rating of Nader would voter for him.

A new poll in New Jersey by the Newark Star-Ledger confirms Kerry's lead over Bush in that state 43% to 37%. The edge is smaller than other polls, but it is still enough to put NJ squarely in Kerry's column. The most interesting thing about it is the large proportion of undecideds. I have noticed that the number of undecideds in this race seems to be much lower than in previous elections. So far, I show only four states with an undecided or other column larger than 10%. Normally, undecided voters tend to go for the challenger.

What the small number of undecided voters means in this election is that it is being decided early. The country is already polarized. Many observers have already commented that the 2004 election is picking up where the 2000 election left off. Compare this election and the likely electoral map to other elections such as 1992 or 1996 and you find that the map looks almost exactly like the 2000 election. There are some states that are still up in the air, but those states were battleground states in 2000 as well.

As the Star-Ledger pointed out, "Kerry is leading in New Jersey even though one-third of voters have no opinion of him. Bush has become a polarizing figure, and the election is turning into a referendum on him in the Garden State." This is true across the nation. For this reason it may be more important to see each state's favorability rating of the President, rather than the head-to-head polls that are easier to come by. Pollsters are doing those types of polls, but they don't make them available for free.

In one state that such numbers are available, Oregon, a poll by the American Research Group shows a 47% favorability rating for Bush, but a 42% unfavorability rating! Compare that to Kerry's numbers and he gets a 48% favorability but only a 29% unfavorability. The remaining 23% undecided shows that people just haven't made up their minds about Kerry. Put that together with low favoribility ratings for Bush and it doesn't look good for for the President.

Bottom Line: Kerry 220 Bush 213 Undecided 105
Needed to win: 270