A whole new series of polls from Rasmussen have come out over the past week. Not a lot of surprises. California is leaning to Kerry 49% to 41%, New York is even more lopsided 57% to 34%. Texas is in favor of Bush 55% to 38%, along with Oklahoma (58% to 34%) and Alabama (57% to 36%).

A couple of new polls have confirmed my suspicions. Georgia is strongly for Bush 51% to 39%. South Carolina is not much different with 49% for Bush and 39% for Kerry.

Virginia has new poll data that puts it in the tossup column. Bush leads there by only two points 47% to 45%. New poll data puts Missouri still up for grabs. Bush leads by a slim margin 44% to 43% there, whereas he had a solid lead (40% to 42%) in March.

Ohio, Pennsylvania and Oregon are all still battleground states and the lines are not completely drawn. Ohio switched sides to favor Bush this time around. He leads there 46% to 44%, whereas he was trailing slightly last March 41% to 45%. Pennsylvania is even tighter than the last poll, at 45% for Bush and 44% for Kerry. Last March, Bush had a strong lead 46% to 40%. Oregon is still tight, trending towards Bush 46% to 45%. It is still too close to call.

Other states expected to fall to Kerry in the Northeast are still strongly for him. This includes New York at 57% to 34%, Maine at 54% to 35%, Illinois at 54% to 38%, New Jersey at 51% to 39%, and Connecticut at 51% to 33%. Iowa and Minnesota are also strongly in favor of Kerry 49% to 41% Iowa and 48% to 43% in Minnesota.

Regionally, Bush is strong in the South, the West and the Plains states. Kerry is strong in the Northeast and the West Coast, though Oregon might give him some trouble. The Midwest and Florida are still the real battlegrounds.

Bottom Line electoral Votes: Bush 189, Kerry 227, Undecided 122
Needed to win: 270