For those of you following the polls in the upcoming Presidential elections, I point you to Dave Leip's Election Atlas.  He collects and analyzes polling data from across the country on a state-by-state basis and posts it as a map.  It is quite a site.  The polling page shows which states are tossups.  Currently, Washington, New Mexico, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine are tossups.

The most important recent development is that Florida is now leaning slightly to Kerry.  This is not good news for Bush.  Bush is likely to pick up Arkansas and West Virginia, but Washington, New Mexico and Maine are likely to fall to Kerry.  Without Florida, Bush needs to win at least three large midwestern states.  This is not likely, given the economic picture in those states for the past four years.  The history of polls in Wisconsin shows it going back and forth.  Bush has some potential here.  Michigan has been going back and forth, with the most recent polls falling towards Kerry.  Ohio went for Bush in 2000, but recent polls go back and forth.  Pennsylvania has been trending towards Kerry, but there are a few polls that show Bush in the lead in that state.  Pennsylvania voted for Gore in 2000.