There are some new polling updates at Dave Leip's Atlas of Presidential Elections.  Florida has a new polls that show Kerry ahead, some that show Bush ahead, and some that show a dead heat.  Florida is still very much in play.  The map shows Pennsylvania and Michigan leaning slightly to Kerry.  I believe that these states will eventually vote for Kerry in November.  

Wisconsin is much more of a battleground than I originally expected.  If Bush wins in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida, he can win the whole shebang.  This is a likely possible scenario.  Conversely, if he doesn't win in Ohio or Florida, it will be very difficult for him to win.  Without Ohio, Bush would need to pick up Wisconsin, Washington and a host of smaller states.  According to most polls, it will be difficult for Bush to win in Washington.  Washington shows as a toss-up, but that is only because of one poll in late June that showed a dead heat in that state.  All other polls in Washington show Kerry winning by four to five points. 

In order for Kerry to win he needs to win in:
A.      Washington, Ohio, Maine, New Mexico, and New Hampshire
B.      Washington and Florida and one of either Maine, New Mexico, or New Hampshire

On interesting scenario I noticed among the various predictions that get posted to the site is an even split in the Electoral College.  This scenario is a real possibility.  Take a look at the battleground states and one small state with 5 electoral votes. 

A.  Kerry wins in Wisconsin as well as Washington, New Mexico, New England, Pennsylvania and Michigan where he is running strong
B.  Bush wins Florida and Ohio as well as West Virginia and Arkansas, where he is running strong
C.  Nevada votes for Kerry instead of Bush.

An even split in the electoral college is a real possibility, given the meager polling data available.  Also, Nevada voted for Clinton in 1996 and 1992.  Many pundits call it a battleground state as well.  If this happens, Bush is likely to win, because the election then moves out of the electoral college and into Congress, where Republicans have a majority.