Oh, the polls are so tight right now! It is impossible to tell who will win this election. The most important state that I see is Ohio. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. I have eight states that are too close to call. Most of them have slight edges one way or the other except for Wisconsin and Ohio. If Kerry loses Ohio, then he will probably lose the whole shooting match.

Here is the calculation: If the parties win the same states that they did in 2000, then Bush will win with 278 electoral votes to Kerry's 260. Kerry is likely to add New Hampshire's 4 EV, though it is not a shoe-in. Bush is currently polling strongly in Florida, Missouri and Nevada, all of which he carried in 2000. They are toss-ups, but if Kerry loses them, he can still win. Gore carried Pennsylvania, Maine, Iowa and Wisconsin in 2000. These are also too close to call, but Kerry has been polling well in Pennsylvania, Maine, and Iowa. The last poll out of Iowa has the candidates tied equally. Rumors also have said that Bush is pulling resources out of Pennsylvania, effectively conceding that state to Kerry.

If these states vote the same way as they did in 2000, and polls suggest they might, then Ohio is the key to the election for Kerry. Ohio goes back and forth daily depending on which poll one watches. If Kerry wins in Ohio, then Bush would have to win in Wisconsin, Iowa and one additional democratic state, most likely New Mexico. In Wisconsin, Bush has been polling well, but the polls go back and forth. If Kerry takes Ohio and not Wisconsin, then he wins 274-264. If he takes Wisconsin and not Ohio, then he loses by the same margin. Other states might change this calculation, such as if Florida falls to Kerry or New Jersey to Bush, but it looks like the final decision will be made in Ohio.